Every football tournament tells a story, and if you listen closely, history whispers clues about what’s coming next. Betting on Euro 2024 isn’t just about gut feelings or backing your favorite team—it’s about spotting trends that have played out in past championships and using them to make smarter bets.
So, let’s step into the role of a football detective, analyzing the footprints of past tournaments to uncover the patterns that could shape the betting landscape of Euro 2024.
1. The Group Stage Advantage – The Slow Starters vs. The Quick Starters
History teaches us that some teams come out swinging while others take their time to warm up. In the last five European Championships, teams that won their opening match advanced past the group stage 85% of the time. That’s a stat you can’t ignore when placing early bets.
- Betting Angle: Look for teams with a history of strong tournament starts. If they have an easy opening fixture, backing them in match-winner bets or over 1.5 team goals markets can be profitable.
On the flip side, some heavyweights stumble out of the gate before finding their rhythm. Portugal in 2016? A perfect example. They drew all their group-stage games and still won the title. If you spot a tournament favorite struggling in the early rounds, consider live betting on them bouncing back in the knockouts at better odds.
A great way to take advantage of these trends is through 20Bet, a platform that offers live in-play betting with competitive odds. Keeping an eye on early match dynamics and adjusting bets in real time can be a game-changer.
2. The Defensive Blueprint: Do ‘Clean Sheet Kings’ Win Big?
Defense wins championships—at least that’s what past tournaments suggest. In three of the last four Euros, the winning team had one of the best defensive records in the competition.
- Betting Angle: Watch for teams that keep things tight at the back. If a side is consistently keeping clean sheets in qualifying and friendlies, under 2.5 goals in their matches might be a smart move.
This trend also fuels another overlooked market—the ‘To Reach the Final’ bet. A defensively solid team might not play the most exciting football, but they often grind their way to the final.
3. Knockout Round Chaos – The Extra Time and Penalty Lottery
Once we hit the knockout stages, chaos reigns. Since Euro 2000, nearly 40% of knockout games have gone to extra time or penalties. That’s a staggering number.
- Betting Angle: If two evenly matched teams are playing, consider betting on a draw after 90 minutes. This market often has juicy odds, and history suggests it’s a frequent outcome.
Additionally, some teams have a strong penalty shootout record (looking at you, Germany) while others crumble under pressure (sorry, England). If a match is heading towards a shootout, live betting on the historically strong teams in penalties could be a sneaky edge.
4. Weather & Fatigue – The Underappreciated Factors
A summer tournament means grueling heat, and that plays a bigger role than most punters realize. Teams from colder climates often struggle in high temperatures, while Southern European nations like Spain and Italy tend to cope better.
- Betting Angle: If a match is played in sweltering conditions, consider betting on fewer goals in the second half as fatigue kicks in.
On top of that, teams that have played extra-time games in previous rounds tend to struggle in their next match. Tracking exhaustion levels and fading tired teams in the later rounds can be a profitable long-term strategy.
5. The Host Nation Factor – Does Home Turf Matter?
Playing on home soil has historically been an advantage, but how much does it matter in the Euros? Since 1984, only one host nation (France in 1984) has won the tournament, but hosts have frequently reached the semis or finals.
- Betting Angle: Germany, the hosts of Euro 2024, will have the crowd on their side. While history suggests they might not lift the trophy, backing them to reach the semifinals could be a value bet.
Betting Smarter, Not Harder
The key to betting on Euro 2024 is not blindly following the hype but recognizing the deeper patterns that repeat across tournaments. Defense wins titles, knockout rounds are unpredictable, and historical trends often hold weight.
Smart punters don’t just bet—they analyze, adapt, and take advantage of trends. So, as Euro 2024 unfolds, keep an eye on these tactical insights, and who knows? You might just beat the bookies at their own game.